Analyst consensus

Analyst consensus

The analyst consensus is based on the most recent estimates submitted by various financial analysts to Aegon N.V.

The details of sell-side analysts who regularly publish equity research on Aegon and contribute to the consensus are listed below.

Broker Analyst Email address
ABN AMRO Cor Kluis cor.kluis@nl.abnamro.com
Autonomous Research Farquhar Murray fmurray@autonomous.com
Bank of America - Merrill Lynch Michael van Wegen michael.vanwegen@baml.com
Barclays Claudia Gaspari claudia.gaspari@barcap.com
Citi Andrew Baker andrew1.baker@citi.com
Credit Suisse Farooq Hanif farooq.hanif@credit-suisse.com
Deutsche Bank Hadley Cohen hadley.cohen@db.com
Evercore David Motemaden David.Motemaden@EvercoreISI.com
Goldman Sachs Johnny Vo johnny.vo@gs.com
HSBC Steven Haywood steven.haywood@hsbcib.com 
ING Albert Ploegh albert.ploegh@ing.com
Jefferies Mark Cathcart mcathcart@jefferies.com
J.P. Morgan Ashik Musaddi ashik.x.musaddi@jpmorgan.com
KBC Securities Jason Kalamboussis Jason.kalamboussis@kbcsecurities.be
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods William Hawkins whawkins@kbw.com
Kempen & Co Matthias de Wit Matthias.deWit@kempen.com
Kepler Cheuvreux Benoît Petrarque benoit.petrarque@keplercm.com
Mediobanca Robin van den Broek robin.vandenbroek@mediobanca.com
Oddo BHF/ Natixis Securities Benoît Valleaux benoit.valleaux@oddo-bhf.com
RBC Gordon Aitken gordon.aitken@rbccm.com
Société Générale Nick Holmes nick.holmes@sgcib.com
UBS Colm Kelly colm.kelly@ubs.com
Exane BNP Paribas  David Barma David.Barma@exanebnpparibas.com
Morgan Stanley  Fulin Liang Fulin.Liang@morganstanley.com

The estimates and any related opinions, forecasts, projections, predictions or expectations, are the sole responsibility of the analysts concerned. Aegon N.V. has not commented on nor verified any (individual) estimates and it does not express any opinion on nor endorses the estimates or their correctness and accuracy in any way. Aegon N.V accepts no liability in respect of the analyst consensus and undertakes no obligation to provide updates or revisions.

It should be noted that estimates are, by definition, forward looking and are therefore subject to risks and uncertainties which are subject to change at any time and which may materially affect eventual results.

This analyst consensus is provided for information purposes only. It should not be seen as a recommendation to buy or sell financial instruments in Aegon N.V., or to take or refrain from taking any other action.

Take a look at our Financial Calendar for dates of upcoming events, including our next half-yearly results.

Date of publication: July 23, 2020

1H 2020 estimates

in EUR mln / in % Median Highest Lowest Average # of estimates
Underlying earnings before tax  753 848 657 757 18
Fair value items 377 753 (250) 369 19
Gains (losses) on investments 24 310 (75) 57 19
Impairment charges (87) (40) (313) (110) 19
Other income/(charges) (660) (270) (1,291) (695) 19
Run-off businesses - 50 (9) 3 19
Net income 262 544 69 282 19
           
Shareholders' equity 22,888 23,411 21,200 22,553 13
Shareholders' equity, excluding revaluation account 16,709 17,604 16,123 16,786 12
Return on equity (in %) 6.6% 7.7% 1.7% 5.7% 8
           
Dividend per share (in EUR per share) 0.14 0.31 0.00 0.10 18
           
Gross remittances 637 771 270 635 16
Holding excess cash 1,700 1,853 1,260 1,627 16
           
Capital generation excl. market impacts and one-time items  724 800 605 713 10
Capital generation excl. market impacts and one-time items after holding funding & operating expenses 585 700 449 576 14
Solvency II ratio (in %) 186% 194% 178% 185% 19

Underlying earnings before tax estimates

Amounts in EUR million Median Highest Lowest Average # of estimates
Full year 2020 1,742 1,923 1,485 1,729 14
Full year 2021 1,936 2,093 1,587 1,905 13
Full year 2022 1,986 2,205 1,626 1,973 13
Amounts in EUR million Low Average  High   # of estimates
Underlying earnings before tax                 461                489                515                           20
Fair value items             (172)             (102)                (42)                           20
Gains/losses on investments                (13)                  70                129                           20
Impairment charges                (57)                (29)                  (0)                           20
Other income                (75)                (15)                    5                           20
Run-off businesses                (14)                  (1)                    5                           20
Net income                228                321                463                           20
           
Operational Free Cash Flow excl. market impacts and one-time items                228                321                372                           15
Shareholders' equity end of period          15,467          18,046          18,873                           19
Adjusted shareholders' equity end of period*          13,258          15,017          15,690                           17
Adjusted shareholders' equity end of period*          13,258          15,017          15,690                           17
Adjusted shareholders' equity end of period*          13,258          15,017          15,690                           17
Underlying earnings before tax                 461                489                515                           20
Fair value items             (172)             (102)                (42)                           20
Gains/losses on investments                (13)                  70                129                           20
Impairment charges                (57)                (29)                  (0)                           20
Other income                (75)                (15)                    5                           20
Run-off businesses                (14)                  (1)                    5                           20
Net income                228                321                463                           20
           
Operational Free Cash Flow excl. market impacts and one-time items                228                321                372                           15
Shareholders' equity end of period          15,467          18,046          18,873                           19
Adjusted shareholders' equity end of period*          13,258          15,017          15,690                           17